Investigation of New Generation Investment in the National Electricity Market of Australia
Speaker: Kin Onn Wong, ITEE
When: 2006-07-18 15:00:00
Venue: 78-420
Host: Prof Tapan Saha & Dr ZY Dong
Abstract:Generation expansion planning in traditional electricity system is a
highly complex problem. The formulation of the problem into an
optimisation framework can only be achieved through decomposition of
the main problem into several sub problems that can be solved with
respective sub-processes. These sub-processes include the
probabilistic demand growth forecast, the outage forecast and
simulation of all the major power system components, cost evaluation
of investment in new generation capacity and the expected
reliability yield from each investment projects. These sub-processes
will then find a list of optimum candidate plans or an investment
path for new generation capacity over the study horizon. Utility
planners in most circumstances will inflate the planned capacity, so
as to ensure that the reliability of the power system is rigorously
met. Thereafter, external to the planning process will be the
justification by the utility to the tax payers on the need for the
new capacity investment and the expected social and economical
benefit from this project.
In a deregulated electricity market, generation expansion problem is
further complicated by greater uncertainly in demand, pool prices,
market regulations and competition from rival generators. This has
resulted in a reduction of the reserve capacity with the improvement
in the allocative efficiency (interconnections). The National
Electricity Market (NEM) of Australia is experiencing a decline in
reserve capacity, since most of the new capacity enters the market
in 2002 [1] has been consumed by the recent growth in
demand. Therefore, even if the real time price signals of NEM
reflects an urgent need for new capacity in a particular trading
region at present time, the new generation facilities will still be
3 to 5 years late. Henceforth, there is an urgent need to research
into the area of new generation investment in NEM; to determine the
type, capacity, location and timing of new entry into NEM based on
market signals. The research outcome should be able to model,
simulate and analyse the availability of market signals for new
generation investment into NEM based on market parameters and data
in Annual National Transmission Report (ANTS).
Biography:(biography unavailable)
Type: Ph.D confirmation
Contact:Prof Tapan Saha & Dr ZY Dong, seminar host (saha@itee.uq.edu.au)
or Guido Governatori (ITEE seminar co-ordinator)
(guido@itee.uq.edu.au)