Investigation of Demand Diversity in Electricity Market Simulation
Speaker: Carla Ziser, ITEE
When: 2006-08-23 11:00:00
Venue: 78-420
Host: Prof Tapan Saha
Abstract:In an electricity market that consists of several separate regions,
interconnection of these regions enables sharing of generation
throughout regions. Demands levels for individual regions in an
interconnected system affect the amount of supply-sharing
(interconnector flow) that occurs between regions, consequentially
affecting market outcomes. Therefore, when performing market
simulations for forecasting purposes, it is necessary for the
correlations between regional demands to be properly represented.
Demand diversity can be thought of as the extent to which regional
demand patterns differ from each other.
The aim of this research is to develop efficient techniques for
incorporating demand diversity into electricity market simulations,
and to assess the impact of the technique used to model demand
diversity on simulation results. Included in this research is an
assessment of the relative benefits of: Monte Carlo techniques to
simulate diversity levels, or use of expected values for diversity.
The extent to which the different approaches impact on electricity
market simulation outcomes will be studied. Investigation and
development of a technique capable of handling demand diversity,
with consideration of correlations with weather patterns in
different regions, will occur. The developed tool will be used to
demonstrate techniques for efficiently assessing the impact of
demand diversity on simulation outcomes.
Current measurement techniques for demand diversity are inadequate
for relation with market outcomes, and as a result new measurement
techniques have been developed. Other preliminary work has involved
analysis of historical demand profiles for verification of the
existence of demand diversity. In addition, probabilistic modelling
of demand, and inherent demand diversity, has been performed. This
has enabled an initial sensitivity study of electricity market
simulation outcomes for uncertainty in weather patterns.
Achievement of the aim of this research will enable more accurate
and informative simulation outcomes, which are used as a basis for
generation and transmission planning decisions.
Biography:(biography unavailable)
Type: Ph.D confirmation
Contact:Prof Tapan Saha, seminar host (saha@itee.uq.edu.au)
or Guido Governatori (ITEE seminar co-ordinator)
(guido@itee.uq.edu.au)